WIIW - Economic and Social Impacts of FDI in Central, East and Southeast Europe

                                                    

                                                                   Foto: Intellinews

"This study (Economic and Social Impacts of FDI in Central, East and Southeast Europe by Doris Hanzl-Weiss and Branimir Jovanović from  The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies)  assesses the economic and social impacts of foreign direct investment (FDI) in 17 economies in Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE). More precisely, we investigate how different FDI inflows have affected various economic and social indicators, such as GDP growth, labour market outcomes, and poverty and inequality, for the period since the fall of communism until 2020. (…)

During the past three decades, the economies of Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) have been experiencing strong inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI). Between 1993 and 2020 the world as a whole has been receiving FDI inflows of around 2.5% of global GDP, while foreign investment in CESEE has averaged 4.4% of GDP. Most of these inflows into CESEE – around 60% of the total – have been coming from the nearby EU15 countries. Western European companies entered the attractive CESEE economies to ensure their presence in the new fast-growing markets, as well as to benefit from the lower production costs there. (…)

We find that FDI inflows have had, in general, a positive effect on economic growth in CESEE, and that this effect has been particularly strong for German and Austrian FDI. For total FDI, higher inflows of 1 percentage point (pp) of GDP are associated with 0.19 pp higher GDP growth. For FDI from Germany and Austria, this effect is five times higher – FDI inflows of 1 pp of GDP have led to 0.9 pp higher GDP growth. The positive GDP effects have come from the higher consumption and exports that the FDI has induced. FDI inflows have also reduced unemployment and increased wages, but have had no effects on labour productivity. Total FDI has had only limited effects on inequality and poverty, but FDI from Germany and Austria has been found to reduce both inequality and poverty, likely because they have benefitted mainly lower-income persons. There are differences in the effects of the different types of FDI, with reinvested earnings and equity capital having in general more beneficial effects than intra-company loans. Also, FDI in different sectors of the economy has had different effects, with inflows to the secondary and tertiary sectors having greater effects than inflows to the primary sector.

 The policy implications of these results are that CESEE economies should not give up on their efforts to attract more FDI, but also that their endeavours should be more targeted, focusing on investments that have greater economic and social impacts. Moreover, foreign investment should not be criticised for the perhaps unsatisfactory economic and social performances of the economies from this region. Instead, the reasons for this should be sought in domestic factors and in the modest growth of the European Union during the past two decades."

Boas Festas para todos os leitores deste blogue - "A gente vai continuar"

Jorge Palma - " A gente vai continuar"

Livro " Os rios não sobem montanhas", de José Manuel de Braga Dias

José Manuel de Braga Dias nasceu em Vila Franca do Campo, Açores. É licenciado em Ciências Sociais e Política Ultramarina pelo ISCSP/Universidade Técnica de Lisboa. É meu amigo e foi meu colega no ICEP - Instituto do Comércio Externo de Portugal onde exerceu diversas funções em Portugal e foi Delegado deste Instituto no Brasil, Venezuela e Angola, entre 1982 e 1996.

Depois de ter publicado em 2015, o livro de contos "Os Olhos verdes da justiça e outros olhares" e, em 20019, o livro de poesia "As cores do tempo", acabou agora de lançar mais um livro, designado "Os rios não sobem montanhas", editado pela Causa das Regras. A capa do livro (acima) é da autoria de João Salgueiro e Jairo Gruenberg. É uma obra que aborda um conjunto de excelentes "estórias" de Angola sobretudo da cidade de Luanda, durante a década de 90 do século passado, na fase pós Acordos de Bicesse e no período de plena guerra civil que atravessava, na altura, aquele país africano. De acordo com o autor  "É neste contexto que se inventam histórias, personagens e que se relembram factos que, em Luanda, constituíam parte do quotidiano de nacionais e estrangeiros". Uma excelente e muito interessante leitura, sobretudo para quem gosta, conhece, viveu/vive ou tem interesse por Angola!

Países Baixos - 40% dos estudantes universitários a frequentarem o 1º ano são estrangeiros (2021/22)

De acordo com o Instituto Nacional de Estatísticas dos Países Baixos (CBS), no ano letivo de 2021/22, cerca de 115 000 estudantes a estudarem em universidades neerlandesas são estrangeiros. Os estudantes estrangeiros representam cerca de 40% dos estudantes de 1º ano nas universidades dos Países Baixos. Destes estudantes, 76% são oriundos do Continente Europeu. Cerca de 1/5 do total estudantes internacionais são alemães (24 500 estudantes). Do Continente Asiático estão inscritos 19 600 estudantes, com destaque para os originários da China (mais de 5 000 estudantes) e da India (mais de 3 mil estudantes). 

De acordo com diversas fontes, são várias as razões que levam estes estudantes a optarem por estudar nos Países Baixos; (i) um grande número de cursos ministrados em língua inglesa; (ii) a qualidade do ensino e da investigação realizada nestes estabelecimentos de ensino; (iii) um valor de propinas muito competitivo, face ao que se verifica em outros países europeus; (iv) as oportunidades profissionais e de criação de emprego/empresas ("startups") numa das mais dinâmicas e competitivas economias europeias; (v) e a qualidade de vida que o país oferece aos seus residentes. Também já é muito relevante  a quantidade de alunos portugueses a estudarem nos Países Baixos, nos níveis de licenciatura, mestrado e doutoramento, ou a fazerem investigação em universidades neerlandesas.

Esta atratividade do sistema universitário neerlandês e a capacidade que tem tido para produzir conhecimento, para reter talento, para estabelecer parcerias internacionais e para criar relações de grande proximidade com ecossistemas empresariais e sociais, parece-nos um excelente caso para estudo e reflexão por parte de outras universidades e instituições estrangeiras vocacionadas para promover e incrementar as relações entre universidades, empresas e outras organizações da sociedade civil.

BusinessEurope: EU-China relations - Engaging with a systemic rival

A BusinessEurope, principal confederação patronal europeia, publicou recentemente um novo "paper" dedicado ao tema das relações União Europeia-China. Veja abaixo as principais conclusões deste documento:

• i) "EU-China relations have faced considerable challenges in recent times. On the one hand, our trade and investment relations remain characterised by significant asymmetries, including a lack of reciprocity in market access and an unlevel playing field in some sectors. Therefore, the recommendations that BusinessEurope set out in its 2020 publication “The EU and China: addressing the systemic challenge” remain relevant today. With the increased politicisation of the Chinese business environment, the situation has become even more challenging for European companies in some areas, exacerbated by the lack of international mobility with China since February 2020. On the other hand, new risk factors have emerged such as China’s increased assertiveness and the supply chain disruptions resulting from China’s zero-COVID policy. It is therefore crucial for European companies to thoroughly assess the short- and long-term risks deriving from any overreliance and exposure to the Chinese market and take mitigating measures accordingly. At the same time, China is and will remain a major market for European companies.
• ii) Despite the challenging state of EU-China relations, the EU should keep in mind that China remains a necessary cooperation partner in certain areas – particularly where multilateral solutions are needed – besides being a competitor and a systemic rival. Our economies are strongly interdependent, and we face many common global challenges that need collective solutions. Therefore, the EU should keep engaging with China in areas of interest with the aim of creating conditions for a constructive and balanced cooperation. However, this cooperation will only be possible if there is political willingness and commitment on both sides.
• iii) Addressing climate change and its consequences is one of the biggest challenges of our time. The European Union is at the forefront of the global fight against climate change and European business is committed to achieving a climate-neutral economy by mid-century. However, the fight against climate change can only be successful with the full mobilisation of all countries, and especially China. European business thus calls for more cooperation between the EU and China on policies to tackle the climate crisis whilst ensuring a level playing field for industry, where costs are shared.
• iv) Standardisation is an essential tool to facilitate trade and interoperability, but it can also be used to erect barriers to international economic exchanges. Both the EU and China have an interest in avoiding a decoupling in this field, which would lead to market fragmentation and increased costs for research and development, unnecessary trade barriers and, potentially, unfair competition. The EU needs to work with like-minded partners and China to boost international standard-setting and the adoption of international standards to avoid such an outcome. Moreover, regulatory dialogue could play an important role in helping prevent trade barriers for EU exporters and encouraging regulatory convergence."

Num evento realizado sobre o mesmo tema, no dia 20.09.22, e tendo por base o referido documento, o Director-Geral da BusinessEurope, Markus J. Beyrer, destaca que "... while European companies will need to thoroughly assess the short and long-term risks deriving from any overreliance and exposure to China, the country will remain an important market for European businesses and a key actor for addressing global challenges. Therefore, the EU should keep engaging with China in areas of interest, with the aim of creating conditions for a constructive and balanced cooperation. Areas of particular relevance in this regard are climate policy and standardisation."

Sobre esta temática das relações UE-China veja também dois documentos importantes da "The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China": European Business in China Position Paper 2022/2023 (Position Paper) e o Business Confidence Survey 2022.

The new geopolitics of trade: what are the implications for the global trading system? | LSE IDEAS