Foto: Stephane de Sakutin/AFP
Partilho uma análise de Olivier Blanchard e de Jean
Pisani-Ferry sobre possíveis consequências económicas da persistência do
Covid-19 nas nossas sociedades no contexto do surgimento de novas variantes do vírus Sars-CoV-2.
" When the COVID-19 crisis
spread in early 2020, many economists who stepped forward with projections of
its impact assumed that a one-time shock would be followed eventually by a
return close to the status quo. Views have differed since then regarding both
the time it would take to produce vaccines and the extent of potential economic
scarring, but, until the last few months, few outside the public health
community seriously contemplated the possibility that the pandemic could
persist on a significant scale.
The emergence of new variants
of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, has made this assumption
questionable. (…) As our colleagues Chad P. Bown, Monica de Bolle, and
Maurice Obstfeld explain in a recent post, the periodic emergence of
new, potentially dangerous variants will remain a serious threat so long as
parts of the world lack access to effective vaccines.
(...) If COVID-19 persists and keeps threatening
lives, two scenarios then seem possible. The first is recurrent waves of
infection, leading governments to oscillate between imposing and lifting
sanitary measures in response to the ups and downs of the disease. The second
is a “zero COVID” scenario: sharp and sustained containment policies at the start,
followed by milder sanitary measures combined with systematic tracing and
testing to maintain a very low infection level thereafter.
(...) We see three main economic implications of a
scenario of recurrent outbreaks. The first is lasting border restrictions, as
countries try to protect themselves from infections elsewhere. The second is
the likelihood of repeated confinements. The third is enduring effects on the
composition of both supply and demand."
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